A federal investigation into suspicious activity on the prediction market platform Kalshi has drawn attention to a longtime aide to President Donald Trump, marking one of the most significant ethics inquiries involving prediction markets since they gained mainstream popularity.
Federal regulators are examining whether White House employee Gabriel Perez used access to confidential information to place profitable wagers on Kalshi’s prediction markets before President Trump delivered public speeches. The investigation has intensified scrutiny of how government employees interact with emerging financial platforms that allow users to bet on real-world events.
The case represents one of the first high-profile allegations involving a White House official and potential insider trading on a regulated prediction market.
What Is the Kalshi Insider Trading Investigation?
The Kalshi insider trading investigation began after the company’s internal surveillance systems detected unusual trading patterns linked to Perez.
According to individuals familiar with the matter, the suspicious activity involved “mention markets,” a category of prediction contracts where users speculate on whether public figures will use specific words or phrases during speeches, interviews, or official appearances.
Kalshi’s compliance team reportedly identified trades that appeared unusual enough to warrant further review before referring the matter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency responsible for regulating U.S. prediction markets.
Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, confirmed that the company promptly alerted regulators after detecting the trades and is fully cooperating with the ongoing investigation.
Investigators are examining trades that reportedly generated more than $90,000 in profits.
Those earnings have since been frozen while regulators determine whether the trades violated federal rules governing insider information and market integrity.
Perez is reportedly cooperating with investigators during the inquiry. The CFTC has not publicly confirmed or denied the existence of an active investigation, consistent with its standard policy regarding ongoing enforcement matters.
At this stage, no criminal charges or formal findings of wrongdoing have been announced.
Why the Investigation Raises Serious Questions
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly over the past year, allowing participants to trade contracts based on political events, economic developments, sports, and even specific statements made by public officials.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, regulated prediction markets operate under federal oversight and are designed to reflect expectations about future events.
The investigation focuses on whether someone with privileged access to presidential speeches could gain an unfair financial advantage by trading before information becomes public.
Because Perez has worked closely with President Trump for years, investigators are examining whether his role provided access to confidential material unavailable to ordinary traders. Perez has served as President Trump’s teleprompter operator for roughly a decade and is considered one of the president’s most trusted technical advisers.
His responsibilities include preparing and operating the teleprompter during presidential speeches, often making him one of the final staff members to review remarks before they are delivered publicly.
President Trump has previously praised Perez for his work, describing him as an essential member of his team during campaign events.
According to congressional salary disclosures, Perez currently serves as Deputy Assistant to the President and Technical Advisor with an annual salary of approximately $175,000.
White House Responds to the Kalshi Insider Trading Investigation
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump had been informed about the allegations and described the situation as unfortunate.
She announced that Perez had been placed on unpaid administrative leave while the investigation proceeds.
Another staff member was assigned to operate the teleprompter during the president’s national address on election integrity.
The White House has also emphasized that all employees are expected to comply with strict ethical standards governing the use of confidential government information.
Earlier this year, White House officials circulated a memo reminding staff that using nonpublic information for personal financial gain is a serious violation that would not be tolerated.
The investigation comes as prediction markets continue attracting millions of users and increasing regulatory attention.
Although the current CFTC leadership has generally supported the expansion of regulated prediction markets, agency officials have repeatedly stressed that insider trading will be aggressively investigated regardless of who is involved.
Market integrity remains central to maintaining public confidence in these platforms, particularly as political prediction markets become more influential during election cycles and major national events.
The outcome of this case could establish an important precedent for how regulators handle allegations involving government officials and confidential information.
The Kalshi insider trading investigation remains ongoing, with federal regulators continuing to review trading records, communications, and other relevant evidence.
Investigators will determine whether the trades were based on legally obtained information or whether confidential government knowledge was improperly used to generate financial profits.
Until the investigation concludes, Perez remains on administrative leave, and the reported profits will remain frozen.
The findings could influence future ethics rules for government employees and shape how prediction markets monitor and report suspicious activity.
